
As
opposed to equities, which can go from
very high levels down to zero in a very
short time (Lehman Brothers was more
than $80 a share in mid-2007), gold
is never going to zero. When other markets
collapse, gold has historically seen
huge increases in value as people make
a quick flight to quality. Throughout
history, gold has been an asset that
protects wealth and has the ability
to grow wealth, especially when the
equities markets and the global economy
are in such negative territory.
The performance of gold bullion is often
compared to stocks. They are fundamentally
different asset classes. Gold is a store
of value whereas stocks are a return
on value (i.e. growth plus dividends).
Stocks and bonds perform best in a stable
political climate with strong property
rights and little turmoil. Since 1800,
stocks have consistently gained value
in comparison to gold due in part to
the stability of the American political
system. This appreciation has been cyclical
with long periods of stock outperformance
followed by long periods of gold outperformance.
The Dow Industrials bottomed out a ratio
of 1:1 with gold during 1980 (the end
of the 1970s bear market) and proceeded
to post gains throughout the 1980s and
1990s. The ratio peaked on January 14th,
2000 a value of 41.3 and has fallen
sharply since. William Anton III wrote
in the 2004 issue of Jefferson Coin
and Bullion "...downward movement in
the Dow/gold ratio is unlikely to stop
precisely at the mean trendline. The
extreme distension of the the 90s will
likely overshoot to the opposite extreme
in the current cycle."
On January 24 2008, gold broke the $900 mark per ounce
for the first time. It continued onward to top $1,000 an ounce on March 13, 2008, $1,100 an ounce on November 9th, 2009 and $1,200 an ounce for the first
time on December 1st, 2009.
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