I told you about my experience two Wednesdays ago regarding the FOMC announcement. The market reaction in the Precious metals was nothing short of spectacular. I didn’t mention that, had you been long Treasurys that day, you would have done better than being long Gold or Silver. The day’s trading range on 3/18 was 882.70 to 954.00. What happened to the market since then? Well, it’s like Deja’ vu all over again. The market topped out at $967.80 on 3/20 and has been giving back the gains ever since. So, here we are again, trading in the low 900’s and wondering what the market is going to do next and I’m finding it hard to make a case for being LONG in the short-term. This kind of market action can be very frustrating for BULLS like myself. Frankly, I can make a major case for the market being at all-time highs right now but the market obviously isn’t buying my theories. It would prefer to test our patience. And we all know that Patience is a virtue, especially when it comes to trading commodities or any other market. Look at the NQ (Nasdaq 100 Mini-futures contract) as one example of why the Gold market is just biding its time before traders blow the lid off of the market. The NQ has basically put in a triple top with highs of 1285.00 on 1/6, 1285.25 on 2/9 and 1281.75 on 3/26.
Here’s my theory. The Stock markets have had a ferocious rally that was hardly unexpected. Nothing goes straight up or straight down. In a long-term bear market, like the one that stocks find themselves in, you will get these kinds of rallies when sentiment becomes too bearish. That’s what’s happened here. Now, I happen to believe that the ultimate lows in stocks lie ahead. I believe I’m in the minority now. That’s good! I like that. If I’m right then Gold should reach new all-time highs soon. The triple-top in the Nasdaq 100 tells me that stocks have only one way to go – DOWN! It may be just a retest of the previous lows or it may be the next leg down which would take stocks to NEW LOWS. I believe that will be the case. Good things come to those who wait. Be patient. Our ship is about to come in and it’s loaded with PROFIT!
Good trading,
Dale F. Doelling, Chief Market Analyst
info@Bullion.com
1.888.453.4614 Ext 2
The information and comments contained herein are provided by Secure Future Financial Corporation (”SFF-CORP”) and NOT Castello Cities Internet Network, Incorporated. Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. This report includes information from sources believed to be reliable and accurate as of the date of this publication, but no independent verification has been made and we do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Any reproduction or retransmission of this report without the express written consent of Secure Future Financial Corporation is strictly prohibited. Again, the information and comments contained herein is provided by SFF-CORP and in no way should be construed to be information provided by Castello Cities Internet Network, Inc. Copyright © Secure Future Financial Corporation.
The Precious Metals markets experienced an event last Wednesday just after the day session ended in New York trading pits that may be unprecedented. The FOMC announced that the Fed was going to buy long-term bonds to the tune of $1 trillion. Crank up the printing presses because we’re about to monetize all of the debt that the President is piling on the backs of America’s taxpayers! This was music to the ears of metals traders and inflation hawks as the markets soared and Gold rallied over $70 from the day’s lows. It was a move that traders will only see a few times in their careers.
I had been buying APR GOLD that morning and I was scalping a buck or two per trade because I was nervous about the announcement and I didn’t want to be caught with my pants down. I could see that the market was just not holding any of the intraday support areas and this was a bit disturbing. I found myself LONG 2 APR GOLD contracts and I was under water on the trade as we approached the FED announcement. I was contemplating whether to hold my position or dump it and wait to see the market’s reaction to the announcement. The risk of holding was extremely high and I could have taken a big hit if the remarks weren’t deemed favorable by the market. I decided to do something that I would normally never do. I held my ground and waited. I was actually getting a bit nauseous as the announcement approached. Then I watched Gold react to the news and it was truly a thing of beauty. My LONG trade going south turned into one of the best intraday trades that I’ve had in a long time. When the market hit $950 I closed my positions and went out on the patio and smoked a Hoyo de Monterrey with a giant grin on my face. I had cheated the market Gods and turned a loser into a huge gain. There’s only one thing better in the whole world!
Now it’s a week later and the high for APR Gold came the next day at $963.50. As I write, the market is trading at $925.10. The outlook for Gold in the near-term is not favorable as the stock markets continue to show that there’s still some life left in this bear-market rally. Ultimately, it is my opinion that Gold is going to eclipse the previous highs set back in March of 2008. When the market does take out the previous highs there will be plenty of supportive news to launch the entire metals complex into the stratosphere. Be patient. Be prudent. Be smart. When the market gets hit with selling, as we’ve seen over the last few sessions, be ready to step in and buy when the market starts to show strength again. Is today the end of this most recent decline? I don’t know. When the market tells me that it’s time to be buying again I’ll be here making my case, once again, for buying Gold, Silver or whatever.
Good trading,
Dale F. Doelling, Chief Market Analyst
info@Bullion.com
1.888.453.4614 Ext 2
The information and comments contained herein are provided by Secure Future Financial Corporation (”SFF-CORP”) and NOT Castello Cities Internet Network, Incorporated. Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. This report includes information from sources believed to be reliable and accurate as of the date of this publication, but no independent verification has been made and we do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Any reproduction or retransmission of this report without the express written consent of Secure Future Financial Corporation is strictly prohibited. Again, the information and comments contained herein is provided by SFF-CORP and in no way should be construed to be information provided by Castello Cities Internet Network, Inc. Copyright © Secure Future Financial Corporation.
I have to apologize. I started writing this on Tuesday, 3/10, after it looked like Gold had made at least an intraday bottom. My family and I had spent the previous 6 days in Southern California. We flew in on 3/4, went to our daughter’s wedding rehearsal on Thursday, she got married on Friday, and I proceeded to get sick on Saturday. There’s nothing worse than a high fever, in my opinion. I ran one for about 12 hours and it really took the starch out of me. We arrived back in Florida early in the morning of the 10th. Later that day I received a very annoying phone call that I should have ended soon after it started but I didn’t. I became so distracted by the whole episode that I forgot to go back to my computer and finish writing my story. So, to make a long story short, I failed to report in a timely manner what, at that time, was a very timely BUY alert on Gold. In my post on 3/03, I stated that Gold was possibly due for a pullback. It proceeded to shed more than $100 in 7 trading sessions. I also said that exiting the Gold trade at that time was really only for Precious metals TRADERS. By this I mean that I was not at all concerned for anyone who ignored my recommendation because it was directed at the metals TRADERS ONLY! My downside target target was $875-885 level. I missed my mark by about $6.00 because APRIL Gold hit an intraday low of $891.10 on 3/10 before rallying back above the $900 mark. I started BUYING APR GOLD at 894.30 that day. The intraday high since 3/10 was 934.80 on 3/13.
Today, the market is in limbo trading as low as $900.10 in early trade. This level would make sense as far as support is concerned so trading LONG at this juncture would seem to be a low-risk trade. Obviously, further weakness, or a close below the $900 level would most likely take the market back to the previous lows at the $891.00 level. I’m going to go out on a limb and say that this morning’s low is going to hold and that we’ll be trading back near, and exceed, the retracement high of $934.80 soon. That would give us a very tidy profit even if the market stalls at resistance. Techically, the market is in limbo as it is neither overbought or oversold enough to make this selloff extremely attractive for buyers. But, nonetheless, when you’re as bullish on the market longer-term as I am you just have to make sure that you buy any significant breaks. To be BULLISH and not LONG the market, as Ed Seykota used to say, is illogical. So, I’m BULLISH and I’m LONG. I bought the APR GOLD contract at 908.50 and 905.50 this morning. If I’m right about the market low having been made then March will turn out to be a very good month. That’s it in a nutshell.
Note: 5:00 PM EDT – ALERT! - APRIL GOLD breaks the $900 level and closes at $941.50. Updates to come later.
Good trading,
Dale F. Doelling, Chief Market Analyst
info@Bullion.com
1.888.453.4614 Ext 2
The information and comments contained herein are provided by Secure Future Financial Corporation (”SFF-CORP”) and NOT Castello Cities Internet Network, Incorporated. Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. This report includes information from sources believed to be reliable and accurate as of the date of this publication, but no independent verification has been made and we do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Any reproduction or retransmission of this report without the express written consent of Secure Future Financial Corporation is strictly prohibited. Again, the information and comments contained herein is provided by SFF-CORP and in no way should be construed to be information provided by Castello Cities Internet Network, Inc. Copyright © Secure Future Financial Corporation.
You have to admit that I hit a home run with my call last week regarding the short-term top that the Gold market made on 2/20. But forget that. What you really want to know is when will Gold make a bottom and resume its upward climb. That’s an excellent question! Here’s my take on the market after today’s losses. I told you last week that I would update you after the close on Friday but I wanted to wait one more day because, after Friday’s mess, I wanted to see if today would bring any kind of rebound. It did not. The April Gold contract finished Friday’s session at $942.50 and then lost another $16.20 today to close at $926.30. If you didn’t take my advice and held your long Gold position last week, you can’t be feeling very good about yourself right now. I understand that people hold their Gold for a variety of reasons and I respect that. Some of you aren’t interested in “trading” precious metals. I respect that also. The reason I’m not concerned for anyone that is holding on to their physical metals at this juncture is because I believe that higher prices lie ahead. If and when the day comes that I feel a change in the major trend is imminent I promise that I will sound the siren until everyone has heard my warning.
For now, let’s look at the current technical condition of the Gold market and see just where it stands. The market is down just over $80 from its recent peak at 1007.70 and looks to be headed for the $886.00 area which would be a Fibonacci retracement level of 38.2%. This would be a very logical place for this decline to end because it corresponds closely with the December high at 892.20. None of these numbers ever end up being precise so my rough estimate would be for the market to see a decline to the $875-885 level before this wave bottoms out. This would put the market back into a highly oversold condition and should provide the fuel for the next advance. Now, I’ve told you many times that I don’t like to project where markets may be going because, frankly, I don’t have a clue. But I believe this next wave will be far more ferocious than the move that took Gold from just below $700 in mid-November to the recent high above $1,000. I also believe that this next move will take Gold to new all-time highs. How high will it go? Well, I always say that if you put a gun to my head I’d give you my best guess. And my best guess is that we’ll probably see Gold trading up to at least the $1,200-1,300 level before any real selling is encountered. The psychological significance of a new all-time high, in light of the current meltdown that the equity markets are experiencing, could catapult the Gold market significantly higher than my estimate. So, for those of you who are holding through to the end I say, no harm, no foul. But remember – there will be a day of reckoning as there is with all Bull AND Bear markets. I’ll do my best to get you out as close to the top as is humanly possible.
Good trading,
Dale F. Doelling, Chief Market Analyst
info@Bullion.com
1.888.453.4614 Ext 2
The information and comments contained herein are provided by Secure Future Financial Corporation (”SFF-CORP”) and NOT Castello Cities Internet Network, Incorporated. Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. This report includes information from sources believed to be reliable and accurate as of the date of this publication, but no independent verification has been made and we do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Any reproduction or retransmission of this report without the express written consent of Secure Future Financial Corporation is strictly prohibited. Again, the information and comments contained herein is provided by SFF-CORP and in no way should be construed to be information provided by Castello Cities Internet Network, Inc. Copyright © Secure Future Financial Corporation.
A lot of people have been asking me this question. And, frankly, that may just be it for a while at least. The April Gold contract traded on the NYMEX hit an intraday high of 1007.70 on Friday of last week and then closed at 1002.20. I remember thinking of all of the things that have been happening in the markets and I asked myself the same question. Could this be it for the Gold market? I came to the conclusion that taking some money off the table was a wise move so I liquidated half my position at the market on the close Friday. Gold has been rallying in spite of a strengthening Dollar and was in a fairly overbought condition. Bonds have definitely been showing signs of capitulation. Stocks have been acting miserably but they’re going nowhere until the Dollar gives way. That has been holding true for quite some time. So, when the stock markets began rallying sharply off the lows on Friday as the EURO rallied 300 points in 30 minutes I felt compelled to do something. So, I sold half my Gold position. I’ll sell the rest tomorrow if we get another close below 966.20.
Another thing that I’ve noticed is that the volatility seems to be coming back to the markets. If that’s so, will we see a reversal in the major trends that have been in place for what seems like forever? I have to say that the jury is still out on this one but don’t be surprised if we don’t see Gold back above that $1,000 mark for a while. If Gold has topped near-term, then stocks should provide us with a tradeable rally here with my target in the DOW at around the 9,000 level. The caveat is that the Dollar will have to play give-back here pushing the EURO back to around 1.3850. Consecutive closes above 1.3100 will confirm that the Dollar rally is done at least for now. Gold is tired and needs to retrace some of it’s $300+ in gains that it has tacked on since mid-November. Consecutive closes below 966.20 (today being the first) will probably lead to a move back to just above the $810 level. No one needs to ride the market down so follow my advice and sell if we get another bad close tomorrow. Let’s see what happens between now and Friday and I’ll update you with my position by the weekend.
Good trading,
Dale F. Doelling, Chief Market Analyst
info@Bullion.com
1.888.453.4614 Ext 2
The information and comments contained herein are provided by Secure Future Financial Corporation (”SFF-CORP”) and NOT Castello Cities Internet Network, Incorporated. Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. This report includes information from sources believed to be reliable and accurate as of the date of this publication, but no independent verification has been made and we do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Any reproduction or retransmission of this report without the express written consent of Secure Future Financial Corporation is strictly prohibited. Again, the information and comments contained herein is provided by SFF-CORP and in no way should be construed to be information provided by Castello Cities Internet Network, Inc. Copyright © Secure Future Financial Corporation.
have done more to help these two people. Then I thought of George Bailey in It’s a Wonderful Life. George may have been a bit naive but he had a good heart. When the Depression hit, ol’ George showed tremendous courage under fire when the run on the banks was starting. He told the shareholders at the Bailey Building & Loan, “We’ve got to stick together” in order to weather this financial storm. We need more George Bailey’s in Washington! My point in all of this is that, if we’re going to get through this quagmire that we find ourselves in, we’re going to have to help each other out because it’s going to get far worse before it gets better. The apathy that we have exhibited during this financial meltdown is the main reason we’re in this mess. I’d like to say that I’m optimistic but, until we show that we’re willing to take some risks of our own and hold Congress’s feet to the fire, we’re just going to get more of the same. What happened to this idea of Change? I think we got duped again. Now to the markets.
If you have any questions or comments, please send me an email to dale@daledoelling.com. I look forward to hearing from you.
Good trading,
Dale F. Doelling, Chief Market Analyst
The information and comments contained herein are provided by Secure Future Financial Corporation
(”SFF-CORP”) and NOT Castello Cities Internet Network, Incorporated. Futures and
options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone.
Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your
financial condition. This report includes information from sources believed to be reliable
and accurate as of the date of this publication, but no independent verification has been
made and we do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Any reproduction or
retransmission of this report without the express written consent of Secure Future Financial Corporation
is strictly prohibited. Again, the information and comments contained
herein is provided by SFF-CORP and in no way should be construed to be information
provided by Castello Cities Internet Network, Inc. Copyright © Secure Future Financial Corporation.
If you want to know which individual asset led the field in January then look no further than this post. As the S&P was posting its worst January ever with an 8.8% decline, Gold, that precious yellow metal, was kicking some serious butt in January. Certainly you must know by now that I’m a Gold Bull. I don’t make that statement recklessly. I analyze markets for hours on end looking for reasons to be LONG or SHORT. I have only been SHORT Gold once in 4 years. We’ve been through a series a “bubbles” beginning with the Dot.com bombs of the 90’s. Then it was Real Estate. The next is probably going to be the Treasury market but that’s only going to happen when the markets truly believe that the deflationary cycle that we find ourselves in has run its course. The commodities markets are just getting started. I’m talking about incredible gains in commodities that we will see over the next 5 years. In November, I told Marketwatch.com’s Myra Saefong that Gold and Treasuries were the only safe place for people to put their money. Gold was trading just below $700 and the 10-Year Notes were yielding just under 4%. Today, Gold is trading above $925 and the 10-year yield has declined to 2.856%. Do you know what a $25K investment split between Gold futures and Treasury futures on November 1st would be worth today if you had leveraged your account equity at 50%? The answer is – over $100K or a 400% cash on cash return in 3 months. Not too shabby!
So, there’s the key. We all know that leverage is a double-edged sword. Now, the futures markets are zero-sum game where for every buyer there’s a seller and for every winner there’s a loser. Leverage, on the other hand, magnifies the movements of the markets. If you are riding a winning trade pyramiding your position can produce incredible returns. And when markets are in firmly entrenched trends like Gold you have to force yourself to stay with the trend. This kind of discipline is absolutely crucial in order to take full advantage of these large market moves.
Good trading,
Dale F. Doelling, Chief Market Analyst
It’s Monday morning, January 26th, and I’m sitting here wondering what happened to January! I’ve just had too many things to deal with this month. My son’s High School basketball team is looking to go to the State tournament and he breaks his leg in a game two weeks ago. The good news is his doctor says he’ll be ready to play again by the last game of the regular season. Then my wife and I are helping with the planning for our daughter’s upcoming wedding in March. I could go on and on but, suffice to say, things have been hectic around here. So I’m going to make sure that I get my posts submitted in a timely manner because the markets don’t wait for anyone.
In my last post on January 14th, I gave you some areas of support for the price of Gold. In retrospect, the one that I considered least important, $800, proved to be the one that actually held the market up. The FEB Gold contract fell to 801.50 intraday on January 15th, the day after that post.
It has rallied over $100 since that time, or about 13%. Now, for those of you who are long-term holders of gold, you’re doing just fine. If you trade the markets on a more frequent basis then you possibly missed an opportunity to get long this rally at a bargain price. I exited my short-term Gold positions when FEB Gold posted consecutive closes below support at 829.80. The fact is, the market gave me a headfake and I took the bait! I really thought the market would need to break the $800 barrier to flush out some weak longs but that was just not the case. I got back on the long side when the market posted consecutive closes above previous support, which then became resistance, or at a price of 848.50. Since I remain a long-term BULL on the Precious metals and because I truly believe that the worst is still ahead regarding the economy, I am committed to building a large position in Gold as the market moves higher. This is a trading strategy that I have employed for years. I simply scale into and out of a trade as the market moves in my favor. The goal of a trend follower is not to buy low and sell high. A Trend Follower buys High and sells Higher or sells Low and buys Lower. Now that Gold has shown that it can rally in spite of a stronger Dollar this can only be BULLISH for Gold and the other metals. How much higher do I expect Gold to go? Well, if you put a gun to my head I’d say that Gold has significant upside potential. If you threatened to pull the trigger, I’d tell you that I expect Gold to eventually top $2,000. Things are going to get pretty ugly. Those who have prepared themselves are certainly in the minority. The masses are asses and they are looking to the Federal government for a handout. That’s what they’ve been conditioned to do since the days of LBJ. The proactive folks (that’s you and me!) have prepared for the worst and have quietly built a stash of bullion coins for the day when our fiat currency no longer is accepted in many places. Continue to accumulate Gold and Silver on pullbacks and keep a long-term perspective. It should pay huge dividends for you.
Dale F. Doelling, Chief Market Analyst
The information and comments contained herein are provided by Secure Future Financial Corporation
(”SFF-CORP”) and NOT Castello Cities Internet Network, Incorporated. Futures and
options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone.
Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your
financial condition. This report includes information from sources believed to be reliable
and accurate as of the date of this publication, but no independent verification has been
made and we do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Any reproduction or
retransmission of this report without the express written consent of Secure Future Financial Corporation
is strictly prohibited. Again, the information and comments contained
herein is provided by SFF-CORP and in no way should be construed to be information
provided by Castello Cities Internet Network, Inc. Copyright © Secure Future Financial Corporation.
The Precious metals markets normally trade higher when there’s nothing but uncertainty regarding the direction of the markets. But toss a hint of Deflation into the mix and we’re talking about a whole new ball game. That’s where we are now. As we move farther down this road toward complete financial collapse the big question is – How do we defend our net worth from the effect of a Deflationary cycle? Real deflation, which is a phenomenon that most of us have never experienced, is a period of contracting prices. The effect of deflation on the markets can be seen in the prices of Treasury securities since October. As the market starts to recognize the fact that we have entered a deflationary cycle, market participants shun financial assets and commodities and move to bonds for safety. It’s pretty obvious that the only asset class that has made any real advances recently are Treasuries. The March 5-year Note futures have added 10 full handles since October 20th. That equates to a $10,000 profit on an initial margin requirement of less than $2,300 for one futures contract. That move in price brought the yield from about 2.97% in October and slashed it by over 50% to 1.328% at the close today. If that doesn’t spell DEFLATION I don’t know what does.
So, here I am wondering just how low Gold is going to go. $800 is psychological resistance but that’s not really support in my opinion. Chart support lies at $780 and then just shy of $740. But Gold could go much lower before people finally come to the realization that their Dollars ain’t worth the paper they’re printed on and rush to buy Gold, Platinum and Silver bullion and coins to stave off their own personal financial demise. I know I didn’t expect Gold to break $830, but the markets have rarely given a rat’s pitoot what I think. We’re dealing with the here and the now. And right now, it’s not looking good for any asset class other than Treasuries. The good news is that bond yields can only go so low and Gold can’t go below zero. I remember back in the mid-80’s when Sugar was trading at 5 cents a pound. This was my first commodities trade ever. I remember thinking that Sugar couldn’t go much lower than 5 cents because producers would sooner dump their product in the lake than sell it for less than 5 cents a pound. Well, I think you can guess the eventual outcome to my logic. Sugar finally bottomed out at 2.7 cents.
Whether it’s commodity funds or individual investors, no one is willing to take a risk right now. So I’m not real enthusiastic about the near-term prospects for Gold and Silver. I said last week that consecutive closes below $830 basis the February contract would force me to exit my positions and that’s exactly what I have done. I’ll be on the sidelines for the time being as the market could go straight to the major support at $780. That would put Gold in a highly oversold condition and I’d probably opt to get long if the market action was encouraging at that point. Also helping Gold’s decline has been the resurgence in the Dollar. I don’t expect the Dollar’s rally to be anything but a short-lived event but I’m not going against the Dollar at this juncture. The bullish tone is obvious and it may last awhile. We’ll see how the rest of the week goes.
Good trading,
Dale F. Doelling, Chief Market Analyst
The information and comments contained herein are provided by Secure Future Financial Corporation
(”SFF-CORP”) and NOT Castello Cities Internet Network, Incorporated. Futures and
options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone.
Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your
financial condition. This report includes information from sources believed to be reliable
and accurate as of the date of this publication, but no independent verification has been
made and we do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Any reproduction or
retransmission of this report without the express written consent of Secure Future Financial Corporation
is strictly prohibited. Again, the information and comments contained
herein is provided by SFF-CORP and in no way should be construed to be information
provided by Castello Cities Internet Network, Inc. Copyright © Secure Future Financial Corporation.
If the first three days of trading in 2009 are any indication you could make a strong case that Gold is going to have some problems in the near-term. We’ve seen the Dollar retrace better than 50% of its recent loss vs. the EURO since December 18th and, should that trend continue, it would definitely throw cold water on any hopes of an early 2009 rally in the Gold market. Feb Gold traded all the way down to $838.80 at around 2 AM EST Tuesday morning. That’s a nearly 6% decline from the 12/31 close. Once again, the selling was 
mostly dollar-based as the EURO broke through major support levels and dragged gold down with it. But, the EURO found support and the Gold market took notice and, just when I started to get that empty feeling in the pit of my stomach, the markets began to slowly move higher. After being down by as much as $19.00, Gold managed to close up $8.20 to $866.00 in Tuesday’s session. And that means we’re still in pretty good shape, technically speaking. We closed the year at $884.30, basis the February futures contract, and Gold has strong support in the $830 area as well as a rising 100-day MA at around $813. This is why I’m holding my long Gold position from mid-November because I never take profits until the market tells me to. The biggest part of this next leg up may still lie ahead. Today’s decline and subsequent rally back into positive territory bodes well for Gold and creates a more positive tone for the market for the rest of this week. Only a reversal and decline below support at $830 would create cause for concern. Consecutive closes below $830 would force me to cover my long position. If this were to occur, and I doubt that it will, the market would most likely test the 100-day MA before it found support. One thing that I’m looking at closely is the recent retracement in the EURO. The EURO, after getting hammered since its peak on July 15th, rallied all the way back to its 200-day MA on 12/18 but failed to close above that mark. It has now broken down again and moved back below its 100-day MA today and is trading just above the 200-week MA at 1.3372. That is troubling if you are looking for Gold to rally. If the EURO can hold that level then we should see Gold rally. If it is unable to hold at this level then the likelihood of further deterioration in the price of Gold rises substantially.
I hate to drag fundamentals into the fray but its difficult to ignore what’s happening in the Middle East. The Israelis seem intent on using all of their might to derail the Hamas militants and I have no doubt that they will utilize every resource to accomplish that goal. Most people would say this situation is supportive to the Gold market but it’s already been factored in. Probably more important for Gold is the potentially devastating $2 trillion that will be added to the Federal deficit in 2009. I’m sorry folks but that’s a number that simply can’t be ignored. And, believe me, the markets won’t! That said, we’ll continue to concentrate on what we do best and that is 1) find an appropriate entry point, 2) cut our losses quickly and 3) let our profits run no matter what our trading time frame is.
In review, I see a risk to the $830 area but will be surprised if we reach it and upside potential to $900+. If the market is able to rally through $900 we’ll look to add to our position as the market continues to trend higher.
We’re planning an online webinar for those of you who would like to learn more about markets and resources for buying gold and silver bullion so make sure you check the Bullion.com website for more details. We’re also working with a large Chicago-based FCM that would allow you to purchase American Eagle Gold coins directly through our website and we’ll have more information on that very soon.
If you have any questions or comments feel free to write me at dale@daledoelling.com
Good trading,
Dale F. Doelling, Chief Market Analyst
The information and comments contained herein are provided by Secure Future Financial Corporation
(”SFF-CORP”) and NOT Castello Cities Internet Network, Incorporated. Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. This report includes information from sources believed to be reliable and accurate as of the date of this publication, but no independent verification has been made and we do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Any reproduction or retransmission of this report without the express written consent of Secure Future Financial Corporation is strictly prohibited. Again, the information and comments contained herein is provided by SFF-CORP and in no way should be construed to be information provided by Castello Cities Internet Network, Inc. Copyright © Secure Future Financial Corporation.