Anyone who thinks that we can sound the all-clear when it comes to the economy, please raise your hand!  Now, if you truly believe that then please send me an e-mail and explain how you have come to that conclusion because I am amazed at all of the talking heads that seem to believe that the light at the end of the tunnel is NOT a freight train coming the other way.  The equity markets seem to believe that as well.  I certainly expected a decent bear-market rally.  And that’s what we got over the last six weeks.  But , in my opinion, the longer this one goes the bigger the decline is going to be when it ends.  And that’s why I want to be LONG Gold before the cracks in the stock market dam become evident.  Gold has certainly had its problems over the last few weeks.  The April low of $865.00 seems to be a strong area of support.  With the June futures contract trading higher by about $15 today and the weakness in the stock index futures testing major support we could see a major turn of events this week.  The last time Gold closed above the Bollinger Bands moving average was on April 1st.  In case you are looking for a very good technical indicator to watch just take a daily chart of Gold and add Bollinger Bands to the chart.  The MA is a tremendous indicator for where the market is today and where it will probably head in the future.

I can trade any market with just this one indicator and have a decent chance of making money doing it.  Currently, the Bollinger Bands moving average on the daily JUNE Gold chart is just slightly above the $886 level.  Today’s intraday high is $887.10.  The market really needs to post a close above the MA to give traders and the Gold market a technically-based shot in the arm which could push the market back above $900 and then, ultimately to new all-time highs.  I know there are a lot of people out there that think that Gold is dead in the water and advocate that you sell all rallies.  I’m not one of those analysts.  They may be right but I don’t think so.  I think new highs are in the offing and that we should take this opportunity to take positions at these prices because there’s nothing more frustrating than missing the trade and having to chase prices higher.

Good trading,

Dale F. Doelling, Chief Market Analyst
info@Bullion.com
1.888.453.4614  Ext 2

The information and comments contained herein are provided by Secure Future Financial Corporation (”SFF-CORP”) and NOT Castello Cities Internet Network, Incorporated. Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. This report includes information from sources believed to be reliable and accurate as of the date of this publication, but no independent verification has been made and we do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Any reproduction or retransmission of this report without the express written consent of Secure Future Financial Corporation is strictly prohibited. Again, the information and comments contained herein is provided by SFF-CORP and in no way should be construed to be information provided by Castello Cities Internet Network, Inc. Copyright © Secure Future Financial Corporation.

I talked about the intermarket relationship between stocks and Precious metals last week and pointed out that the NQ (Nasdaq 100) may have been putting in a quadruple top.  That top is history, for now.  You see, markets have a funny way of hurting as many people as they possibly can.  I was focusing on the NQ because it has clearly been the best performer in 2009 of all the major stock indexes.  The performance of the S&P and the DOW pales in comparison.  Getting back to my analysis, the high in the June NQ had been right around the 1285.00 level in January, February and again in March.  On Thursday the experiment blew up as the NQ made an intraday high of 1310.75 and, more importantly, closed above the 1300 mark.  Momentum traders got on board the breakout train and that’s probably what propelled the NQ to its high of 1327.50 in early trading this morning.  But wait just a minute here!  The market is trading 19 handles lower as I write this and my expectation for a peak in the first 3 days of this week may just come to fruition.  This could be the spark that lifts Gold and Silver off the mat and back in the fight.  The following chart on May Silver shows that the low that was made back on 3/18 (11.89 intraday) was a panic situation that provided strong support for this market over the longer-term.  If stocks should begin to tumble, and this morning’s action is looking weak, then Silver may be the market to be in.  Silver could quite easily rally back to the February highs if investors start to smell a trap in the equities arena.

So, to recap, I remain SHORT the NQ and, should the NQ be able to break support at 1293.25 on a closing basis, chances are that the Precious metals will have already shown signs that the decline is complete and a new leg up is underway.  Keep your eye on the MAY SILVER contract as we progress through the week.  If the market should break further and begin to approach the $12.00 level I’ll simply step in and BUY using the previous low at 11.89 as my stop on a closing basis.  This could be the BEST opportunity for being long SILVER since the October lows at 8.65.  You need to be ready to act because, as we all know, the best laid plans are worthless without action.

Good trading,

Dale F. Doelling, Chief Market Analyst

The information and comments contained herein are provided by Secure Future Financial Corporation
(”SFF-CORP”) and NOT Castello Cities Internet Network, Incorporated. Futures and
options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone.
Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your
financial condition. This report includes information from sources believed to be reliable
and accurate as of the date of this publication, but no independent verification has been
made and we do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Any reproduction or
retransmission of this report without the express written consent of Secure Future Financial Corporation
is strictly prohibited. Again, the information and comments contained
herein is provided by SFF-CORP and in no way should be construed to be information
provided by Castello Cities Internet Network, Inc. Copyright © Secure Future Financial Corporation.

The NQ futures contract (NASDAQ 100) made a quadruple top overnight when it rallied to just shy of the previous high made on 2/10 of 1285.25.  This morning’s high was 1284.00 and, assuming the market doesn’t break out and close above 1285.25, this is as close to a sure bet as you’ll get when it comes to trading the markets.  I’m SHORT the NQ and will remain short until the NQ closes above the resistance that I mentioned.  How does this affect the Precious metals markets?  Let’s look at Gold for a moment.  We just had a higher initial jobless claims number this morning and the 4-week moving average rose again aslo.  Does this sound like an improving economic condition to you?  I’m sure you’ve heard the joke “How do you know when a politician’s lying?  His lips are moving!”  One of the President’s biggest campaign promises went up in smoke yesterday when the largest tax increase in tobacco taxes took effect despite Obama’s promise not to raise taxes of any kind on families earning under $250,000.  This is one tax that disproportionately affects the poor, who are more likely to smoke than any other class of Americans.  Nothing has changed!

It’s just after 8:30 AM on Thursday and the April Gold contract is trading down $12.00 at 914.10.  I continue to like Gold in the low 900’s but with the Employment report set to be released tomorrow morning at 8:30 AM I am compelled to wait until that number is released before I commit to the long side once again.

If you look at the daily chart you can see that the %R oscillator is showing that the market is in a bottoming process.  This means that tomorrow’s number could put Gold on another rocket shot trajectory or it could mean that the market will break down to the previous lows of 3/18 or somewhere south of $900 and then turn and rally.  There’s really no way of telling unless you happen to be the one that compiles the Employment numbers for the Labor Department.  Trading in front of the biggest economic report of the month is gambling, not trading.  The facts remain the same on the economic front.  We ain’t out of the woods yet by any stretch of the imagination.  As a matter of fact, we’re still trying to figure out which way is North.

Let me leave you with this little snippet from P.J. O’Rourke, my favorite political satirist and Libertarian, when he was asked to evaluate President Obama’s performance so far.  “A dorm room bull session is in control of our country.  Obama wants to change everything at once with no understanding of what those things are, no idea of how change happens in the real world, and no notion of the consequences of his ignorance.”  I couldn’t have said it better myself!

Good trading,

Dale F. Doelling, Chief Market Analyst

The information and comments contained herein are provided by Secure Future Financial Corporation (”SFF-CORP”) and NOT Castello Cities Internet Network, Incorporated. Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. This report includes information from sources believed to be reliable and accurate as of the date of this publication, but no independent verification has been made and we do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Any reproduction or retransmission of this report without the express written consent of Secure Future Financial Corporation is strictly prohibited. Again, the information and comments contained herein is provided by SFF-CORP and in no way should be construed to be information provided by Castello Cities Internet Network, Inc. Copyright © Secure Future Financial Corporation.