I told you about my experience two Wednesdays ago regarding the FOMC announcement.  The market reaction in the Precious metals was nothing short of spectacular.  I didn’t mention that, had you been long Treasurys that day, you would have done better than being long Gold or Silver.  The day’s trading range on 3/18 was 882.70 to 954.00.  What happened to the market since then?  Well, it’s like Deja’ vu all over again.  The market topped out at $967.80 on 3/20 and has been giving back the gains ever since.  So, here we are again, trading in the low 900’s and wondering what the market is going to do next and I’m finding it hard to make a case for being LONG in the short-term.  This kind of market action can be very frustrating for BULLS like myself.  Frankly, I can make a major case for the market being at all-time highs right now but the market obviously isn’t buying my theories.  It would prefer to test our patience.  And we all know that Patience is a virtue, especially when it comes to trading commodities or any other market.  Look at the NQ (Nasdaq 100 Mini-futures contract) as one example of why the Gold market is just biding its time before traders blow the lid off of the market.  The NQ has basically put in a triple top with highs of 1285.00 on 1/6, 1285.25 on 2/9 and 1281.75 on 3/26.

Here’s my theory.  The Stock markets have had a ferocious rally that was hardly unexpected.  Nothing goes straight up or straight down.  In a long-term bear market, like the one that stocks find themselves in, you will get these kinds of rallies when sentiment becomes too bearish.  That’s what’s happened here.  Now, I happen to believe that the ultimate lows in stocks lie ahead.  I believe I’m in the minority now.  That’s good!  I like that.  If I’m right then Gold should reach new all-time highs soon.  The triple-top in the Nasdaq 100 tells me that stocks have only one way to go – DOWN!  It may be just a retest of the previous lows or it may be the next leg down which would take stocks to NEW LOWS.  I believe that will be the case.  Good things come to those who wait.  Be patient.  Our ship is about to come in and it’s loaded with PROFIT!

Good trading,

Dale F. Doelling, Chief Market Analyst
info@Bullion.com
1.888.453.4614  Ext 2

The information and comments contained herein are provided by Secure Future Financial Corporation (”SFF-CORP”) and NOT Castello Cities Internet Network, Incorporated. Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. This report includes information from sources believed to be reliable and accurate as of the date of this publication, but no independent verification has been made and we do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Any reproduction or retransmission of this report without the express written consent of Secure Future Financial Corporation is strictly prohibited. Again, the information and comments contained herein is provided by SFF-CORP and in no way should be construed to be information provided by Castello Cities Internet Network, Inc. Copyright © Secure Future Financial Corporation.

The Precious Metals markets experienced an event last Wednesday just after the day session ended in New York trading pits that may be unprecedented.  The FOMC announced that the Fed was going to buy long-term bonds to the tune of $1 trillion.  Crank up the printing presses because we’re about to monetize all of the debt that the President is piling on the backs of America’s taxpayers!  This was music to the ears of metals traders and inflation hawks as the markets soared and Gold rallied over $70 from the day’s lows.  It was a move that traders will only see a few times in their careers. 

I had been buying APR GOLD that morning and I was scalping a buck or two per trade because I was nervous about the announcement and I didn’t want to be caught with my pants down.  I could see that the market was just not holding any of the intraday support areas and this was a bit disturbing.  I found myself LONG 2 APR GOLD contracts and I was under water on the trade as we approached the FED announcement.  I was contemplating whether to hold my position or dump it and wait to see the market’s reaction to the announcement.  The risk of holding was extremely high and I could have taken a big hit if the remarks weren’t deemed favorable by the market.  I decided to do something that I would normally never do.  I held my ground and waited.  I was actually getting a bit nauseous as the announcement approached.  Then I watched Gold react to the news and it was truly a thing of beauty.  My LONG trade going south turned into one of the best intraday trades that I’ve had in a long time.  When the market hit $950 I closed my positions and went out on the patio and smoked a Hoyo de Monterrey with a giant grin on my face.  I had cheated the market Gods and turned a loser into a huge gain.  There’s only one thing better in the whole world!

Now it’s a week later and the high for APR Gold came the next day at $963.50.  As I write, the market is trading at $925.10.  The outlook for Gold in the near-term is not favorable as the stock markets continue to show that there’s still some life left in this bear-market rally.  Ultimately, it is my opinion that Gold is going to eclipse the previous highs set back in March of 2008.  When the market does take out the previous highs there will be plenty of supportive news to launch the entire metals complex into the stratosphere.  Be patient.  Be prudent.  Be smart.  When the market gets hit with selling, as we’ve seen over the last few sessions, be ready to step in and buy when the market starts to show strength again.  Is today the end of this most recent decline?  I don’t know.  When the market tells me that it’s time to be buying again I’ll be here making my case, once again, for buying Gold, Silver or whatever.

Good trading,

Dale F. Doelling, Chief Market Analyst
info@Bullion.com
1.888.453.4614  Ext 2

The information and comments contained herein are provided by Secure Future Financial Corporation (”SFF-CORP”) and NOT Castello Cities Internet Network, Incorporated. Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. This report includes information from sources believed to be reliable and accurate as of the date of this publication, but no independent verification has been made and we do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Any reproduction or retransmission of this report without the express written consent of Secure Future Financial Corporation is strictly prohibited. Again, the information and comments contained herein is provided by SFF-CORP and in no way should be construed to be information provided by Castello Cities Internet Network, Inc. Copyright © Secure Future Financial Corporation.

I have to apologize.  I started writing this on Tuesday, 3/10, after it looked like Gold had made at least an intraday bottom.  My family and I had spent the previous 6 days in Southern California.  We flew in on 3/4, went to our daughter’s wedding rehearsal on Thursday, she got married on Friday, and I proceeded to get sick on Saturday.  There’s nothing worse than a high fever, in my opinion.  I ran one for about 12 hours and it really took the starch out of me.  We arrived back in Florida early in the morning of the 10th.  Later that day I received a very annoying phone call that I should have ended soon after it started but I didn’t.  I became so distracted by the whole episode that I forgot to go back to my computer and finish writing my story.  So, to make a long story short, I failed to report in a timely manner what, at that time, was a very timely BUY alert on Gold.  In my post on  3/03, I stated that Gold was possibly due for a pullback.  It proceeded to shed more than $100 in 7 trading sessions.  I also said that exiting the Gold trade at that time was really only for Precious metals TRADERS.  By this I mean that I was not at all concerned for anyone who ignored my recommendation because it was directed at the metals TRADERS ONLY!  My downside target target was $875-885 level.  I missed my mark by about $6.00 because APRIL Gold hit an intraday low of $891.10 on 3/10 before rallying back above the $900 mark.  I started BUYING APR GOLD at 894.30 that day.  The intraday high since 3/10 was 934.80 on 3/13. 

Today, the market is in limbo trading as low as $900.10 in early trade.  This level would make sense as far as support is concerned so trading LONG at this juncture would seem to be a low-risk trade.  Obviously, further weakness, or a close below the $900 level would most likely take the market back to the previous lows at the $891.00 level.  I’m going to go out on a limb and say that this morning’s low is going to hold and that we’ll be trading back near, and exceed, the retracement high of $934.80 soon.  That would give us a very tidy profit even if the market stalls at resistance.  Techically, the market is in limbo as it is neither overbought or oversold enough to make this selloff extremely attractive for buyers.  But, nonetheless, when you’re as bullish on the market longer-term as I am you just have to make sure that you buy any significant breaks.  To be BULLISH and not LONG the market, as Ed Seykota used to say, is illogical.  So, I’m BULLISH and I’m LONG.  I bought the APR GOLD contract at 908.50 and 905.50 this morning.  If I’m right about the market low having been made then March will turn out to be a very good month. That’s it in a nutshell.

Note: 5:00 PM EDT – ALERT!  -  APRIL GOLD breaks the $900 level and closes at $941.50.  Updates to come later.

Good trading,

Dale F. Doelling, Chief Market Analyst
info@Bullion.com
1.888.453.4614  Ext 2

The information and comments contained herein are provided by Secure Future Financial Corporation (”SFF-CORP”) and NOT Castello Cities Internet Network, Incorporated. Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. This report includes information from sources believed to be reliable and accurate as of the date of this publication, but no independent verification has been made and we do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Any reproduction or retransmission of this report without the express written consent of Secure Future Financial Corporation is strictly prohibited. Again, the information and comments contained herein is provided by SFF-CORP and in no way should be construed to be information provided by Castello Cities Internet Network, Inc. Copyright © Secure Future Financial Corporation.

You have to admit that I hit a home run with my call last week regarding the short-term top that the Gold market made on 2/20.  But forget that.  What you really want to know is when will Gold make a bottom and resume its upward climb.  That’s an excellent question!  Here’s my take on the market after today’s losses.  I told you last week that I would update you after the close on Friday but I wanted to wait one more day because, after Friday’s mess, I wanted to see if today would bring any kind of rebound.  It did not.  The April Gold contract finished Friday’s session at $942.50 and then lost another $16.20 today to close at $926.30.  If you didn’t take my advice and held your long Gold position last week, you can’t be feeling very good about yourself right now.  I understand that people hold their Gold for a variety of reasons and I respect that.  Some of you aren’t interested in “trading” precious metals.  I respect that also.  The reason I’m not concerned for anyone that is holding on to their physical metals at this juncture is because I believe that higher prices lie ahead.  If and when the day comes that I feel a change in the major trend is imminent I promise that I will sound the siren until everyone has heard my warning.

For now, let’s look at the current technical condition of the Gold market and see just where it stands.  The market is down just over $80 from its recent peak at 1007.70 and looks to be headed for the $886.00 area which would be a Fibonacci retracement level of 38.2%.  This would be a very logical place for this decline to end because it corresponds closely with the December high at 892.20.  None of these numbers ever end up being precise so my rough estimate would be for the market to see a decline to the $875-885 level before this wave bottoms out.  This would put the market back into a highly oversold condition and should provide the fuel for the next advance.   Now, I’ve told you many times that I don’t like to project where markets may be going because, frankly, I don’t have a clue.  But I believe this next wave will be far more ferocious than the move that took Gold from just below $700 in mid-November to the recent high above $1,000.  I also believe that this next move will take Gold to new all-time highs.  How high will it go?  Well, I always say that if you put a gun to my head I’d give you my best guess.   And my best guess is that we’ll probably see Gold trading up to at least the $1,200-1,300 level before any real selling is encountered.  The psychological significance of a new all-time high, in light of the current meltdown that the equity markets are experiencing, could catapult the Gold market significantly higher than my estimate.  So, for those of you who are holding through to the end I say, no harm, no foul.  But remember – there will be a day of reckoning as there is with all Bull AND Bear markets.  I’ll do my best to get you out as close to the top as is humanly possible.

Good trading,

Dale F. Doelling, Chief Market Analyst
info@Bullion.com
1.888.453.4614  Ext 2

The information and comments contained herein are provided by Secure Future Financial Corporation (”SFF-CORP”) and NOT Castello Cities Internet Network, Incorporated. Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. This report includes information from sources believed to be reliable and accurate as of the date of this publication, but no independent verification has been made and we do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Any reproduction or retransmission of this report without the express written consent of Secure Future Financial Corporation is strictly prohibited. Again, the information and comments contained herein is provided by SFF-CORP and in no way should be construed to be information provided by Castello Cities Internet Network, Inc. Copyright © Secure Future Financial Corporation.